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biopsy needle is useful for the histopathological diagnosis of AIP, due to its abundant acquisition of good-quality tissue from the pancreas. Multivariable prediction models are important statistical tools for providing synthetic diagnosis and prognostic algorithms based on patients' multiple characteristics. Their apparent measures for predictive accuracy usually have overestimation biases (known as 'optimism' relative to the actual performances for external populations. Existing statistical evidence and guidelines suggest that three bootstrap-based bias