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To compare official mapping with probabilistic mapping of infestation by Aedes spp. in the municipalities of Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. This was an ecological study using data from samples of mosquito breeding sites collected in 2016-2017; official classification was obtained from epidemiological reports, and infestation per municipality and week was estimated by fitting a dynamic site-occupancy model to data from municipal epidemiological surveillance. 187,245 samples collected in 473 municipalities returned 10,648 detections of