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Base probabilities for subsequent LTO and associated risk ranges by cohort were as follows (a) 3.92% (0%-10.75%), (b) 17.59% (10.76%-28.05%), (c) 38.53% (28.06%-47.55%). The proportion of patients whose individual probability fell outside their cohort's risk range was as follows 1.5%, 4.6%, and 9.2% for cohorts 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The strong relationship between accumulated supply days and future LTO offers an opportunity to leverage electronic healthcare records for decision support in preventing the initiation of inappropriate LTO