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Many decisions are guided by expectations about their outcomes. These expectations can arise from two fundamentally different sources from direct experience with outcomes and the events and actions that precede them or from mental simulations and inferences when direct experience is missing. Here we discuss four elegant tasks from animal learning theory (devaluation, sensory preconditioning, Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer, and Pavlovian overexpectation) and how they can be used to isolate behavior that is based on such mental simulati