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013) and HGD/OAC (p = 0.002). Aberrant p53 expression correlated with risk of short-term progression within 12 months, with an odds ratio of 6.0 (95% CI 3.1-11.2). A panel comprising aneuploidy and p53 had an area under the receiving operator characteristics curve of 0.68 (95% CI 0.59-0.77) for prediction of any progression. Interpretation Aneuploidy is the only biomarker that predicts neoplastic progression of NDBO. Aberrant p53 expression suggests prevalent dysplasia, which might have been missed by random biopsies, and warrants earl