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e., the weakening of interventions as time passes. The proposed model reproduces typical evolving patterns of COVID-19 epidemic waves observed in many countries. Estimating the parameters ν1,ν2,ν3 and initial conditions, such as R0, for different countries helps to identify important dynamics in their social responses. One conclusion is that the leading cause of the strong second wave in Europe in the fall of 2020 was not the relaxation of interventions during the summer, but rather the failure to enforce interventions in the fall.Preventi