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The adoption of contraception often coincides with market integration and has transformative effects on fertility behavior. Yet many parents in small-scale societies make decisions about whether and when to adopt family planning in an environment where the payoffs to have smaller families are uncertain. Here we track the fertility of Maya women across 90 years, spanning the transition from natural to contracepting fertility. We first situate the uncertainty in which fertility decisions are made and model how childbearing behaviors respo
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