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A C-index of 0.66 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.69) for prediction of the composite thromboembolic end point was found in the validation cohort, which was higher than for CHADS2 (C-index 0.63 [95% CI 0.60 to 0.67]; p less then 0.001) and CHA2DS2-VASc (C-index 0.64 [95% CI 0.62 to 0.67]; p = 0.034). The model also predicted MACE (C-index 0.71 [95% CI 0.69 to 0.73]). In conclusion it is possible to identify patients without AF at high risk of first-time thromboembolic events and MACE by use of a simple clinical prediction model.Treatment of submassiv
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