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To derive formulas to estimate the prevalence of untreated dental caries in permanent teeth based on the DMF index and lifetime caries prevalence. Data from participants, aged 5 years or older, in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011-2016 were analyzed. Dental caries was assessed at surface level with the Radike criteria, which matches the case definition of the Global Burden of Disease study. Participants' data were aggregated into 438 groups, based on survey strata and 5-year age brackets, to produce population es