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14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.41-7.00, p=0.005; adjusted OR 3.08, 95% CI 1.36-6.98, p=0.007) and corresponded to an estimated exacerbation risk cut-off of 15%. Reducing ICS when estimated exacerbation risk was below 15% versus 10% would result in fewer patients remaining on the same ICS dose (40/384, 10.4% versus 141/384, 36.7%) but similar proportions of patients avoiding exacerbations (222/243, 91.4%, 95% CI 87.1%-94.6% versus 311/344, 90.4%, 95% CI 86.8%-93.3%). CONCLUSION In patients with mild-to-moderate asthma, gradual ICS red