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Background Substantial limitations have been imposed on passenger air travel to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 between regions and countries. However, as case numbers decrease, air travel will gradually resume. We considered a future scenario in which case numbers are low and air travel returns to normal. Under that scenario, there will be a risk of outbreaks in locations worldwide due to imported cases. We estimated the risk of different locations acting as sources of future COVID-19 outbreaks elsewhere. Methods We use modelled

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