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Objective We examined how probability of conviction affects the maximum plea sentence mock defendants will accept. Hypothesis Relying on Prospect Theory (Kahneman Tversky, 1979), we hypothesized that, relative to the expected value of trial, participants would need increasingly better sentences as conviction probability increased and would settle for sentences worse than the expected value of trial when probability was very low. Method We manipulated conviction probability and potential trial sentence in a series of three between