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This paper is to produce different scenarios in forecasts for international tourism demand, in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. By implementing two distinct methodologies (the Long Short Term Memory neural network and the Generalized Additive Model), based on recent crises, we are able to calculate the expected drop in the international tourist arrivals for the next 12 months. We use a rolling-window testing strategy to calculate accuracy metrics and show that even though all models have comparable accuracy, the forecasts produced vary s
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